Prototype design for a predictive model to improve evacuation operations : technical report.

PDFTech ReportFHWA/TX-11/0-6121-1Project 0-6121EvacuationHurricanesComputer modelsHighway operationsFreeway operationsTraffic delayTexasTexas. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation OfficeHenk, Russell H.Songchitruksa, PraprutVenglar, StevenLim, GinoTexas Transportation InstituteTexas. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation OfficeUnited States. Federal Highway AdministrationUS Transportation CollectionMass evacuations of the Texas Gulf Coast remain a difficult challenge. These events are massive in scale,highly complex, and entail an intricate, ever-changing conglomeration of technical and jurisdictional issues.This project focused primarily on the specific issue of developing a new technical tool to help TxDOT andother key operating agencies/stakeholders better predict when major elements of evacuation operationsshould be implemented. In particular, a variety of technical analyses were employed to develop a new,prototype decision support system that provides additional insights to more effectively decide whenevaculane shoulder operations versus full contraflow operations are needed to manage evacuation demand.This new tool has a predictive mechanism designed to provide lead time for implementing these twoprospective operational scenarios. The work conducted during this research involved a large-scaleapplication of the DynusT model, and integrates several different factors into the evacuation operationdecision-making process\ue2\u20ac\u2022namely real-time traffic conditions, hurricane characteristics (strength and size)and human behavior