Project title: Prototype design for a predictive model to improve evacuation operations

755091836Technical report; Feb. 2009-Jan. 2011.PDFTech ReportFHWA/TX-11/0-6121-1Project 0-6121EvacuationDisasters and emergency operationsDisastersDisaster preparednessEmergenciesEmergency managementTexasTexas Transportation InstituteHenk, Russell H.Songchitruksa, PraprutVenglar, StevenLim, GinoTexas Transportation InstituteTexas. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation OfficeNTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Environment ImpactsNTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-PLANNING AND POLICYNTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-SAFETY AND SECURITYUS Transportation CollectionMass evacuations of the Texas Gulf Coast remain a difficult challenge. These events are massive in scale,highly complex, and entail an intricate, ever-changing conglomeration of technical and jurisdictional issues.This project focused primarily on the specific issue of developing a new technical tool to help TxDOT andother key operating agencies/stakeholders better predict when major elements of evacuation operationsshould be implemented. In particular, a variety of technical analyses were employed to develop a new,prototype decision support system that provides additional insights to more effectively decide whenevaculane shoulder operations versus full contraflow operations are needed to manage evacuation demand.This new tool has a predictive mechanism designed to provide lead time for implementing these twoprospective operational scenarios. The work conducted during this research involved a large-scaleapplication of the DynusT model, and integrates several different factors into the evacuation operationdecision-making process\ue2\u20ac\u2022namely real-time traffic conditions, hurricane characteristics (strength and size)a nd human behavior