Techniques for Predicting High-Risk Drivers for Alcohol Countermeasures. Volume 2, User Manual

NHTSA - Behavioral Safety Researchhttps://doi.org/10.21949/15249931978PDFResearch PaperCouncil, Forrest M.Lacey, John H.Stewart, J. RichardUniversity of North Carolina (System). Highway Safety Research CenterUnited States. National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationUnited States. National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationUnited StatesAccident risk forecastingDrunk drivingHigh risk driversMathematical modelsMathematical predictionEconomic analysisEvaluationDOT-HS-804-733NTIS-PB298562DOT-HS-5-01250Final reportThis user manual, a companion to the Volume I Technical Report by the same name, is designed to aid the alcohol program administrator in his decisions concerning implementation of countermeasures to selected individuals or small groups of drivers. Volume I describes the development of statistical models to predict the probability of a future alcohol-related crash for six high-risk groups of drivers. Volume II, the User Manual, presents the ways in which alcohol administrators can use the developed predictor models. The User Manual contains information concerning the inputs of the predictive models, information concerning the cost and effectiveness of potential countermeasure programs, and procedures for conducting an economic analysis methodology to help the administrator decide whether or not a chosen countermeasure pays off in terms of reducing the predicted number of alcohol-related crashes. In addition, the final chapter of the manual presents a brief overview of evaluation techniques and problems as they relate to trial alcohol programs. This Volume also contains computational forms for use in the economic analysis, a computer program that carries out the analysis methodology, and information concerning the background material on alcohol and driving and the statistical development of predictor models. /Abstract from report summary page/129