Demand projections for the northeast corridor : financial analysis

PDFTech ReportDOT-TSC-FRA-76-4DOT-TSC-936RR622/R6301Intercity transportationIntercity travelTravel demandForecastingFinancial analysisHigh speed railCity pairsAlternatives analysisPassenger traffic measurementEastern StatesNew York Metropolitan AreaPhiladelphia (Pennsylvania)United States. Federal Railroad AdministrationProkopy, J. C.Ruina, D. E.Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)United States. Federal Railroad AdministrationNTL-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE-Economic ImpactsNTL-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE-ECONOMICS AND FINANCENTL-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE-Rail Economics and FinanceVolpe National Transportation Systems Center, Technical Reference CenterThis report describes the development and results of intercity travel demand projections by city-pair prepared for the Northeast Corridor financial analysis. In addition associated analyses of projected passenger volumes by station and of selected alternative station sites are included. The report first presents the methodology used both to develop projections of total travel by all modes for each city-pair and to assess the rail share of the total. Next, the development of the travel and socioeconomic data base is discussed. The assumption and sources used for calibration and projection data sets are given, including travel patterns, travel impedances, and population and income information for each city-pair. Two basic rail alternatives were analyzed: rail service would remain unchanged for 1974 service levels; and the Northeast Corridor Development Program would be implemented by 1982. The results of each of the scenarios and sensitivity analyses performed for each alternative are described. Detailed annual rail passenter volume estimates were developed for high volume days and peak hours. Finally, the potential benefits of additional service to new or additional suburban station sites north of Philadelphia and New York City are examined