Transportation revenue impacts from a changing light-duty vehicle fleet.

PDFTech ReportSWUTC/13/600451-00073-1DTRT12-G-UTC06Fuel consumptionLight vehiclesRevenuesFuel taxesElectric vehiclesHybrid vehiclesInternal combustion enginesVehicle fleetsTransportation policyEconomic impactsMarket shareTexasSouthwest Region University Transportation Center (U.S.)Hall, AndreaWalton, C. MichaelJin, Peter J.University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation ResearchUnited States. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology AdministrationUS Transportation CollectionAdvanced fuel economies in both traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) andelectric vehicles (EVs) have a strong influence on transportation revenue by reducing fuelconsumption per vehicle and ultimately drawing down the amount of fuel tax revenue received. It isexpected that more ICE vehicles with advanced fuel economies and EVs, especially gasoline hybridEVs, will enter the roadway in coming years, and fuel tax revenues and the Highway Trust Fund willincreasingly become more affected. This study estimates the impact that increased sales of advancedICEs and EVs will have on future fuel tax revenues by drawing on industry estimates of future EVand ICE market shares and anticipates future fleet mix and fuel economy for both vehicletechnologies. An estimation process overview is provided and assumptions are described.Fuel tax revenue amounts that would be expected from future light vehicle fleets withincreased shares of EVs are compared to equivalently sized fleets composed of all ICEs, and futurefleet mixes are estimated. Results show that as more EVs enter the light vehicle fleet, greaterrevenue losses are expected, and total losses from years 2011 through 2050 depend on fleetcomposition and fuel economy of both vehicle types. It is found that the amount of fuel taxes paid byICE drivers each year remain greater than fuel taxes paid by EV drivers even with advances in theaverage ICE vehicle fuel economy. Finally, a review of alternative revenue generation methods thatstates are employing to cover fuel tax revenue gaps is given