Runway incursion severity risk analysis.

DOCTech ReportDOT-VNTSC-FAA-12-13FA6AB3FA01B1Airport runwaysRunway incursionsAccident severityRegression analysisChoice modelsAirport ground transportationAirport surface traffic controlAircraft accidentsAirport operationsWeather conditionsMultinomial logitsUnited StatesJohn A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)Biernbaum, LeeHagemann, GarrettJohn A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Safety/AirworthinessNTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Aviation Safety/AirworthinessVolpe National Transportation Systems Center, Technical Reference CenterRunway incursions are defined as the unauthorized presence of a vehicle, pedestrian, or aircraft on a runway. Identifying situations or conditions in which runway incursions are more likely to be severe can suggest policy implications and areas for future safety research. Previous work in this area focused on a narrative approach. This study seeks to examine runway incursions from a statistical perspective and provide insights into the broad trends underlying severity.This report analyzes 10 years of runway incursion event information. A variety of FAA data sources were used to provide information on the event itself, airport characteristics, and airport operations at the time of the incident. Weather information was also incorporated using automated weather readings from airports. The culmination of the analysis is a series of discrete choice models focusing on different sets of incident characteristics.As this represents the first regression-based analysis of these data, the results are suggestive rather than definitive. For example, controller incidents appear to be more severe on average. The results also suggest some areas for further investigation: specifically a need for understanding the frequency of incursions and improvements to the severity measure