The future of transportation planning : dynamic travel behavior analyses based on stochastic decision-making styles : final report.

761896204Final reportPDFTech ReportChoice modelsDecision makingForecastingFutureResearchStochastic processesSurveysTraffic forecastingTransportation planningTravel behaviorTravel demandUnited StatesNew Jersey Institute of TechnologyLiu, Rongfang (Rachel)Li, GuilinNew Jersey Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil & Environmental EngineeringNew Jersey Institute of TechnologyUniversity Transportation Centers Program (U.S.)US Transportation CollectionOver the past half-century, the progress of travel behavior research and travel demand forecasting has been spearheaded and continuously propelled by the micro-economic theories, specifically utility maximization. There is nodenial that the travel demand models today are sophisticated and in most cases capable of forecasting the mainstream of travel behavior in urban areas. However, a quick scan of those models or travelbehavior analyses reveals great discrepancies between what is expected and the actual capabilities of the models.These discrepancies go beyond the statistical errors between actual travel behavior and travel demand forecasts,based on theoretical assumptions.The authors of this paper approach the travel behavior analysis differently. They posed and attempted to answer thefollowing questions:- Are we applying the appropriate assumptions to the right people for their travel behavior?- Are the assumptions we use to reflect the actual decision-making processes for the travelers correct?The proposed approach suggests that we stand back and look at a few levels up along the decision-making process.The conceptual framework of this approach includes:- A \ue2\u20ac\u153travel behavior survey\ue2\u20ac? that collects data on decision-making styles,- Stochastic processes to capture the linkage between decision making styles and traveler\ue2\u20ac\u2122s characteristics,and- Dynamic assignments of travel choice models according to identified decision-making styles.It is clear that great challenges lie ahead for the approach proposed here. The lack of development of lessresearched decision-making styles create great challenges. However, they also provide opportunities fortransportation professionals to explore along multiple paths of investigation. The conceptual framework and initialattempts presented here may serve as a stimulus for further explorations. Reasonable representations for differenttypes of decision-making styles will help transportation professionals to understand the fundamentals of travelbehaviors. The better understanding of the travel behavior and demand will further help in developing more efficienttransportation systems