Short-term integrated forecasting system : 1993 model documentation report

663103679PDFManualDOE/EIA-M041(93)ForecastingMathematical modelsEnergy consumptionUnited States. Energy Information AdministrationUnited States. Energy Information AdministrationNTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTBTS Data DirectoryThe purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (tlp to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of U.S. supplies, demands, imports, exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth; A low world oil price and high economic growth; A high world oil price and low economic growth. All three of these cases assume normal weather scenarios. However, to determine the resulting change in petroleum demand due to changes in the weather, the weather assumptions are varied yielding petroleum demand sensitivities. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. This report documents the First Quarter 1993, version of STIFS and has been written to comply with the requirements specified in Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2, Energy Conservation and Production Act and EIA Standard 91-01-03, Model Documentation