Modelling the Role of Diagnosis, Treatment and Health Education on Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Dynamics

Tuberculosis, an airborne disease affecting almost a third of the world?s population remains one of the major public health burdens globally. Although it can be cured, the resurgence of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa calls for concern. To gain insight into its qualitative dynamics at the population level, mathematical modeling which require as inputs key demographic and epidemiological information can fill in gaps where field and lab data are not readily available. A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis to assess the impact of diagnosis, treatment and health education is formulated. The model assumes that exposed individuals develop active tuberculosis due to endogenous activation and exogenous re-infection. Treatment is offered to all infected individuals except those latently infected with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis. Qualitative analysis using the theory of dynamical systems show that in addition to the disease-free equilibrium, there exists a unique dominant locally asymptotically stable equilibrium corresponding to each strain. Numerical simulations suggest that at the current level of control strategies (with Malawi as a case study), the drug sensitive tuberculosis can be completely eliminated from the population, thereby reducing multi-drug resistant tuberculosis