External Validation of the MEESSI Acute Heart Failure Risk Score: A Cohort Study

Background The MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF) score was developed to predict 30-day mortality in patients presenting with acute heart failure (AHF) to emergency departments (EDs) in Spain. Whether it performs well in other countries is unknown. Objective To externally validate the MEESSI-AHF score in another country. Design Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01831115). Setting Multicenter recruitment of dyspneic patients presenting to the ED. Participants The external validation cohort included 1572 patients with AHF. Measurements Calculation of the MEESSI-AHF score using an established model containing 12 independent risk factors. Results Among 1572 patients with adjudicated AHF, 1247 had complete data that allowed calculation of the MEESSI-AHF score. Of these, 102 (8.2%) died within 30 days. The score predicted 30-day mortality with excellent discrimination (c-statistic, 0.80). Assessment of cumulative mortality showed a steep gradient in 30-day mortality over 6 predefined risk groups (0 patients in the lowest-risk group vs. 35 [28.5%] in the highest-risk group). Risk was overestimated in the high-risk groups, resulting in a Hosmer-Lemeshow P value of 0.022. However, after adjustment of the intercept, the model showed good concordance between predicted risks and observed outcomes (P = 0.23). Findings were confirmed in sensitivity analyses that used multiple imputation for missing values in the overall cohort of 1572 patients. Limitations External validation was done using a reduced model. Findings are specific to patients with AHF who present to the ED and are clinically stable enough to provide informed consent. Performance in patients with terminal kidney failure who are receiving long-term dialysis cannot be commented on. Conclusion External validation of the MEESSI-AHF risk score showed excellent discrimination. Recalibration may be needed when the score is introduced to new populations. Primary Funding Source The European Union, the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Heart Foundation, the Cardiovascular Research Foundation Basel, the University of Basel, and University Hospital Basel