Methods for Using Manpower to Assess USAF Strategic Risk

With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior US Air Force (USAF) decision makers struggle to base enterprise resource allocation from rigorous analytical traceability. There are over 240 career fields in the USAF spanning 12 enterprises. Each enterprise develops annual risk assessments by distinctive core capabilities. A core capability (e.g. Research and Development) is an enabling function necessary for the USAF to perform its mission as part of the Department of Defense (DOD). Assessing risk at the core capability is a good start to assessing risk, but is still not comprehensiveness enough. One of the twelve enterprises has linked its task structure to Program Element Codes (PECs). Planners and programmers use amount of funding per PEC to assess tasks needed to address a desired capability. For the first time, a linkage between core functions, core capabilities, PECs, tasks and manpower has been developed. We now can provide an objective nomenclatured way to compute personnel risk. All resources planned are not programmed (i.e. resource allocated and budgeted); the delta between the two translate into capability gaps and a level of strategic risk. A USAF career field risk demonstration is performed using normal, sigmoid and Euclidean-norm functions. Understanding potential personnel shortfalls at the career field level should better inform core capability analysis, and thus increase credibility and defensibility of strategic risk assessment