Variance of the volume of random real algebraic submanifolds

Final version, published in Trans. Amer. Math. Soc.International audienceLet $\mathcal{X}$ be a complex projective manifold of dimension $n$ defined over the reals and let $M$ denote its real locus. We study the vanishing locus $Z_{s_d}$ in $M$ of a random real holomorphic section $s_d$ of $\mathcal{E} \otimes \mathcal{L}^d$, where $ \mathcal{L} \to \mathcal{X}$ is an ample line bundle and $ \mathcal{E}\to \mathcal{X}$ is a rank $r$ Hermitian bundle. When $r \in \{1,\dots , n − 1\}$, we obtain an asymptotic of order $d^{r− \frac{n}{2}}$, as $d$ goes to infinity, for the variance of the linear statistics associated to $Z_{s_d}$, including its volume. Given an open set $U \subset M$, we show that the probability that $Z_{s_d}$ does not intersect $U$ is a $O$ of $d^{-\frac{n}{2}}$ when $d$ goes to infinity. When $n\geq 3$, we also prove almost sure convergence for the linear statistics associated to a random sequence of sections of increasing degree. Our framework contains the case of random real algebraic submanifolds of $\mathbb{RP}^n$ obtained as the common zero set of $r$ independent Kostlan–Shub–Smale polynomials