Econometric analysis and comparison of household final consumption in Germany, Austria and Greece

Potrošnja je ena izmed komponent bruto domačega proizvoda, ki s svojim približno dvo tretjinskim deležem predstavlja pomemben vpliv na gospodarstvo države. Gibanje osebne potrošnje pomembno vpliva na stanje agregatnega povpraševanja, spremembe v katerem povzročajo fluktuacije v poslovnem ciklu. Nivo potrošnje v državi določa tudi nivo prihrankov, ki vplivajo na akumulacijo kapitala in dolgoročno gospodarsko rast. V diplomskem delu bomo obravnavali potrošnjo kot makroekonomsko spremenljivko, torej na agregatni ravni celotne države. Predmet analize so države Grčije, Nemčije in Avstrije, katerih potrošnjo bomo analizirali z uporabo ekonometričnih metod. Predstavili bomo ekonomsko teorijo na podlagi katere smo kot pojasnjevalne spremenljivke naših modelov potrošnje izbrali razpoložljivi dohodek, obrestno mero in odloženo potrošnjo. Pripravili bomo multivariatne modele potrošnje v izbranih državah, katere bomo ocenjevali z Metodo Najmanjših Kvadratov. Preverili bomo statistično značilnost pojasnjevalnih spremenljivk in primernost specifikacije postavljenih model. Pri izbiri najboljšega modela bomo med seboj primerjali linearnega, dvojno logaritemskega in linearni model z odloženo odvisno spremenljivko. Pri tem bomo uporabili t-test, vrednosti F-statistike, RESET in Chow-test. Na koncu bomo preverili, ali je predpostavkam Metode Najmanjših Kvadratov v naših modelih zadoščeno. Ugotovili smo, da izbrane spremenljivke statistično značilno pojasnjujejo potrošnjo in, da je njihov vpliv skladen s pričakovanji iz ekonomske teorije.Consumption is one of the components of gross domestic product and makes up about two thirds of it and therefore greatly influences country\u27s economy. Consumption has important effect on the level of agregate demand, which influences fluctuations in short-term business cycles. Level of consumption directs level of savings in economy which is key predictor of capital accumulation and long-term economic growth. Here we will examine consumption as macroeconomic variable on the agregate level of the countries as a whole. Countries that are subject to our analysis are Greece, Germany and Austria, consumption of which we will analyse using econometric methods. We will present economic theory underpinning the choice of our explanatory variables for our models. Those are disposable income, interest rate and deffered consumption. We will prepare multivariant consumption models in selected countries, which we will estimate using Ordinary Least Squares method. We will test statistical significance of explanatory variables and adequance of the model as a whole. For this analysis we will use t-test, F-statistics, RESET-test and Chow-test. We will estimate linear, double logarithmic and linear model with deffered dependent variable and check whether assumptions of the Ordinary Least Squares for our models hold. We concluded that the explanatory variables of our choice are statistically significant in explaining our models of consumption and that their effect on explained variable is in accordance with economic theory