Modeling changes in Arctic air pollution due to increased industrial activities

The Arctic is undergoing very rapid changes, such as decreasing sea-ice extent during summer. As a result, transit shipping via the Northern Sea Route, along the northern coast of Scandinavia and Russia, is already occurring. As shipping through the Arctic increases, emissions of air pollutants (aerosols, ozone, and their precursors) into the lower troposphere are likely to become more significant. In addition to shipping, emissions linked to extraction of Arctic oil/gas deposits and associated infrastructure will also increase. As part of the EU ACCESS project, we investigate the role of current and future anthropogenic activities in the Arctic on regional air pollution and the concentrations of short-lived climate forcing agents in the Arctic troposphere using a regional chemical transport model. The model simulates emissions, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols simultaneously with the meteorology. The model is used to examine ozone and aerosol formation in fresh and aged plumes. The sensitivity of results to model resolution is also examined. Results are also used to quantify the impacts of ship and oil/gas emissions on regional scales in the Arctic. Model results will be discussed in the context of a DLR aircraft campaign in July 2012, based in northern Norway, to investigate emissions from Arctic shipping and oil/gas extraction (including measurements of trace gases and aerosols)