Future climatic drivers and their effect on PM10 components in Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

International audienceMultiple CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) future scenarios run with the CHIMERE chemistry transport model (CTM) are compared to historic simulations in order to study some of the drivers governing air pollution. Here, the focus is on regional climate, anthropogenic emissions and long-range transport. Two major subdomains are explored – the European region and the Mediterranean Basin – with both areas showing high sensitivity to climate change. The Mediterranean area is explored in the context of the ChArMEx (the Chemistry Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment) project, which examines the current and future meteorological and chemical conditions of the Mediterranean area. This climate impact study covers the period from 2031 to 2100 and considers possible future scenarios in comparison with 1976 to 2005 historic simulations using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A detailed analysis of total PM10 (particulate matter with a diameter smaller that 10 µm) concentrations is carried out, including the evolution of PM10 and changes to its composition. The individual effects of meteorological conditions on PM10 components are explored in these scenarios in an effort to pinpoint the meteorological parameter(s) governing each component. The anthropogenic emission impact study covers the period from 2046 to 2055 using current legislation (CLE) and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) anthropogenic emissions for the year 2050 compared with historic simulations covering the period from 1996 to 2005 and utilizing CLE2010 emissions data. Long-range transport is explored by changing the boundary conditions in the chemistry transport model over the same period as the emission impact studies. Finally, a cumulative effect analysis of these drivers is performed, and the impact of each driver on PM10 and its components is estimated. The results show that regional climate change causes a decrease in the PM10 concentrations in our scenarios (in both the European and Mediterranean subdomains), as a result of a decrease in nitrate, sulfate, ammonium and dust atmospheric concentrations in most scenarios. On the contrary, BSOA (biogenic secondary organic aerosol) displays an important increase in all scenarios, showing more pronounced concentrations for the European subdomain compared with the Mediterranean region. Regarding the relationship of different meteorological parameters to concentrations of different species, nitrate and BSOA show a strong temperature dependence, whereas sulfate is most strongly correlated with relative humidity. The temperature-dependent behavior of BSOA changes when looking at the Mediterranean subdomain, where it displays more dependence on wind speed, due to the transported nature of BSOA existing in this subdomain. A cumulative look at all drivers shows that anthropogenic emission changes overshadow changes caused by climate and long-range transport for both of the subdomains explored, with the exception of dust particles for which long-range transport changes are more influential, especially in the Mediterranean Basin. For certain species (such as sulfates and BSOA), in most of the subdomains explored, the changes caused by anthropogenic emissions are (to a certain extent) reduced by the boundary conditions and regional climate changes