Bay Area Project Organization Survey, 1992 (M1099B)

This study investigated societal response to a earthquake "predictions" issued for the San Francisco Bay Area in the aftermath of the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake. After 1989 earthquake, the Working group on California Earthquake Probabilities issued a report indicating the total 30 year probability of one or more earthquakes in the Bay Area was set at 67%. As a result there was a desire to find an effective way to inform citizens. A document was prepared to appear in a Sunday edition of Bay Area newspapers. This document, titled "The Next Big Earthquake in the Bay Area May Come Sooner Than You Think" was distributed in several languages on September 9, 1990. This study was designed to measure the impact of this document and what people thought and did to get ready for the next big earthquake. The study also sought to understand any negative economic or societal impacts resulting from the prediction of a major earthquake. Data was gathered from the general public; businesses and corporations; health, safety and welfare organizations; and government agencies at the city, county, state and federal level. Investigators used a nested approach to determine which health, safety and welfare organizations and government agencies should be included in the survey. Data was gathered through structured interviews. Interviews were conducted with all federal and state agencies in the Bay Area that had a role in setting earthquake policy, managing land or public works, overseeing resources or public safety or that had a role in earthquake response. Interviews were also conducted in with spokespersons from government agencies, and private, health, safety and welfare organizations in Alameda, San Francisco and Santa Clara counties. Almost 100 non-business interviews were conducted from January-April, 1992. Face-to-face interviews with 54 businesses were carried out in January-February 1992. Respondents answered questions on the effectiveness of the newspaper insert, what they remembered about the information provided in the insert, what they did to prepare for a future earthquake, reasons for not doing more preparation, and amount of perceived risk