Predicting Insect Development in Changing Climates: Bean Beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus) Phenology Modeling

Temperature-dependent development time models are useful tools for predicting population dynamics (including range expansion) and managing insect populations under changing temperatures. Sharpe and DeMichele (1977) proposed a model based on equilibrium enzyme kinetics to explain the dependence of insect phenology on varying temperatures. We fit their model to constant temperature development time data for bean beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus), that we measured in laboratory experiments, and used the model to predict development time under varying temperatures. Bean beetles are an important agricultural pest insect in Africa and Southeast Asia that has begun to infest crops in Europe and North America. We are currently working to extend the Sharpe DeMichele model to account for non-equilibrium enzyme kinetics, particularly at low temperatures, in order to more accurately predict the timing of developmental events in the bean beetle