Stock Repurchases: A Theoretical Prediction Model

There has been a shift in payout policy over the last 15 years with firms opting to conduct stock repurchases over paying dividends. As repurchases have grown so has the corresponding research. Of particular note are findings that identify factors contributing to a firm’s buyback decision and as well as those that support the existence of long-run return anomalies. While several notable researchers have reported the prevalence and persistence of stock repurchase anomalies, this paper examines the history of repurchase theory and presents a theoretical repurchase prediction model. Using variables shown in the literature to have influence on the decision to repurchase stock, a probit estimation model is developed as a means to identify firms likely to conduct repurchase programs