The stall in fertility decline in rural, northeast, South Africa: the contribution of a self-settled, Mozambican, refugee sub-population

Using longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural South Africa, this paper examines the role of the fertility of self-settled, former Mozambican refugee sub-population on the stall in fertility decline in the Agincourt HDSS from 1993 to 2009. The Agincourt HDSS fertility trend is decomposed to quantify the relative contribution of the Mozambicans to fertility changes. Results show that fertility level declined by about 1.5 children per woman over the period and the level remain around 2.5 children per woman in the last eight years of the period examined suggesting a stall in fertility decline in the sub-district population covered by the HDSS. However, while the fertility of the Mozambicans fell consistently over the period, there was a reversal in the fertility decline of South African women residing in the area suggesting that the overall stalls are attributable to stalls in fertility decline among South African women.