Phytosanitary measures under uncertainty: a cost-benefit analysis of the Colorado potato beetle in Finland

We have undertaken a temporal cost–benefit simulation of two policies for controlling an invasive pest – the Colorado potato beetle – in the agricultural network of Finland. The policies assessed are the current policy based on a European Union (EU) protected zone (pre-emptive control) and an alternative policy of giving up the protected zone (reactive control). Besides the natural stochasticity related to agricultural production, we assume that the environmental change affects the dynamics of the problem. This change is included by means of three linear trends: i) local climatic change, ii) regional climatic and production change, and iii) biological change in the pest population. Uncertainty is incorporated through stochastic variables and a sensitivity analysis. The main result is that protection is economically viable, provided that there is some future change and a non-insignificant level of winter survival of the pest populatio