Risk and indemnification models of infectious plant diseases: the case of Asiatic citrus canker in Florida

Asiatic citrus canker is an infectious disease that is a significant hazard to commercial citrus production in Florida. Our paper examines models of the risks of citrus canker transmission. The State of Florida currently has an active inspection program that checks every commercial grove several times each year. We use data from over 338,000 inspections over the 1998-2004 period. Simple models describing the risks of infection are used to evaluate risks and associated indemnity/insurance fund contribution rates. The risks are estimated for annual contracts which would pay producers a pre-specified indemnity in the event that their grove is found to be infected with canke