Effect of Border Patrol Agent Staffing on Crime Along the Northern Border

In recent years increased fears of illegal migration, drug trafficking, and potential terrorists crossing the United States border have resulted in a dramatic rise in Border Patrol agent numbers from the 1990’s to the present. The purpose of this paper is to examine how increased Border Patrol agent staffing has affected crime rates along the northern border of the United States and Canada. To determine if there was a correlation between crime rates and agent numbers I gathered arrest data and agent staffing numbers from the Border Patrol. The information I gathered was from the Havre Sector in north central Montana. After the information was gathered I used a linear regression analysis to determine if there was a correlation between Border Patrol agent numbers and arrests between 1999-2011. The linear regression analysis suggests that there is a correlation between increased Border Patrol agent numbers and a decreasing number of apprehensions by the Border Patrol. This paper suggests that further investigations of the data and comparisons with other border sectors should be conducted to better understand deterrence theory and help determine possible policy changes that could be put into place