Survival following a diagnosis of heart failure in primary care

BackgroundHeart failure is a common long term condition affecting around 900,00 people in the United Kingdom and patients commonly present to primary care. The prognosis of patients with a code of heart failure in their primary care record is unknown. Objective The study sought to determine the overall survival rates for patients with heart failure in a primary care population from the time of diagnosis.MethodsSurvival analysis was carried out using UK primary care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2012. Patients age 45 or over with a first diagnostic label of heart failure were matched by age, sex and practice to people without heart failure. Outcome was death in the heart failure and no heart failure cohorts. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare survival. Age-specific survival rates at one, five and ten years were determined for men and women with heart failure. Survival rates by year of diagnosis and case definition were also calculated. ResultsDuring the study period, 54,313 patients had a first diagnostic code of heart failure. Overall survival rates for the heart failure group were 81.3% (95%CI 80.9-81.6), 51.5% (95%CI 51.0-52.0) and 29.5% (95%CI 28.9-30.2) at one, five and ten years respectively and did not change over time. ConclusionsIn a primary care population, the survival of patients diagnosed with heart failure did not improved over time. Further research is needed to explain these trends and to find strategies to improve outlook.