Scenario analysis using carbon budget modelling for alternative forest management strategies in Turkey : the case study of Arikaya

Increasing carbon stock in forests is fundamental for climate change mitigation. Forest carbon management can also play a critical role in keeping forests healthy, while addressing multiple wildlife and human needs. To fulfill this potential, forest management practices require an improved understanding of annual carbon stocks and carbon dynamics. However, this information is oftentimes not properly accounted for in forest management plans, particularly in the case of developing countries. This thesis focuses on a case study in Turkey to demonstrate the potential to enhance Turkish forest management plans by including carbon stock accounting. The Forest Planning Studios Atlas (FPS-Atlas) and the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Service (CBM-CFS3) software programs were used to assess three alternative forest management scenarios in the case study. Carbon stock estimates for each scenario were compared to a baseline based on the current management plan. The first alternative scenario assumed an accelerating harvest rate over time, driven mainly by population growth. The second alternative scenario assumed rehabilitation of non-productive areas, a practice that has been gaining attention in Turkey over the last two decades. The third alternative scenario assumed the rehabilitation practices are combined with a low harvest flow. A carbon price analysis was conducted comparing the baseline with the third alternative scenario. Results showed that accelerating harvest can negatively affect the carbon stocks in a period of one hundred years. Rehabilitation, on the other hand, showed a positive impact on carbon sequestration potential when compared to the baseline after a hundred years. The rehabilitation scenario with low harvest flow showed promising results for international carbon trading. Overall, the methods used in this research proved useful to improve current forest managements strategies in Turkey, particularly in relation to climate change mitigation.Forestry, Faculty ofGraduat