Implications of hurricane : sea surface temperature relationship

This paper presents a study to assess the impact of possible future climate change on the joint hurricane wind and rain hazard along the northeast US coastline. A postulated climate change model (IPCC scenario) was considered, which suggested changes in sea surface temperature (SST) (i.e., the driving parameter in most modern hurricane models). Relationships between SST and hurricane genesis frequency, genesis location, and track propagation were incorporated into state-of-the-art hurricane simulation procedures. Results from the SST conditioned hurricane simulations indicate the wind and rain hazards for the northeast US are likely to increase in a warmed climate, while the overall number of landfalling events is likely to decrease.Non UBCUnreviewedThis collection contains the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers. Also full papers were peer reviewed. The editor for this collection is Professor Terje Haukaas, Department of Civil Engineering, UBC Vancouver.Facult