Gentrification : an intra-urban predictive model

Since 1970, many inner-city neighbourhoods that were the domain of low-income groups occupying cheap, dilapidated housing have attracted higher socio-economic groups. As a consequence, capital invested has increased the condition and price of inner-city housing. This phenomenon is commonly called "gentrification." This thesis reviews the gentrification literature, analyzes gentrification within an economic framework, and uses regression analysis to test the following hypothesis: There is a lag between the first statge of gentrification, the start of demographic transition, and the second stage, rising real housing prices. An increase in real housing prices can, therefore, be predicted by observing which central neighbourhoods are beginning to undergo demographic change. The intra-urban gentrification model designed for this thesis regresses the change in real housing prices during the 1970s against the change in demographics during the 1960s. The sample is 95 inner-city census tracts from Vancouver, Ottawa-Hull, and Toronto. The conclusion from statistical analysis is that rising housing prices in gentrifying neighbourhoods can indeed be predicted by observing which inner-city neighbourhoods are starting to undergo demographic change.Business, Sauder School ofGraduat