Stochastic river modelling to estimate flood probabilities of a tidal river

The optimal use of resources in a floodplain is important especially as marginal returns increase in value. Flood control measures which protect floodplain development need to be conservative to allow for future growth. This thesis presents a methodology whereby the likelihood of flooding of a river is determined from Monte Carlo simulations using a numerical river model. The river model is based on the hydrodynamic equations of motion and continuity while the stochastic parameters of the river are determined from recorded discharge data from the Nicomekl River, Surrey B.C., which is used as the test case of this study. Comparisons are made between simulated and recorded data with predictions of flood probabilities and conclusions as to the use of the methodology.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat