Coastal recreation analysis and forecasts

Coastal recreation activity has broad appeal. Recreation sites near urban areas will receive increasing use as populations grow and as long-distance travel costs increase. Knowledge of the clientele at the coastal recreation site and their activity will assist day-to-day management decisions and future planning considerations for this important resource. The objectives of the study were to describe the recreation site visitors and their use of three comparable sites; to determine visitor characteristics which affect and explain their activity; and to forecast daily use for future years. Population size, site attractiveness, and site accessibility are, among the factors examined, the more important factors affecting the number of visits from a population area to a recreation site. Drawing from the above conclusions in the literature, it was considered in this study that the inclusion of 'social group' characteristics of the population should improve the explanation of recreation site use. The descriptive study found significant, though small, differences amongst visitors of the three study sites and their use of the sites. Families were the predominant social group at all sites; more visitors choose the site for its closeness than for any other reason. Using analysis of variance, the intensity of the visit was differentiated by both 'personal' and 'social group' characteristics, increasing most with greater distance travelled and larger on-site group size.. Actual differences found were not large. Employing multiple regression analysis, the frequency and intensity of visits were only poorly explained by knowledge of 'personal' and 'social grou'1 variables. 'Personal' variables signficantly improved the explanation of variance in number of activities pursued; frequency of visits was explained mostly by the 'personal' variable of travel distance, though still poorly. The lack of large differences amongst vistors at the coastal sites suggests the general appeal of this outdoor activity. Forecasts of the number of daily visits at Centennial Beach utilized visitor origin information and daily site use estimations from the traffic survey. Growth is forecast to increase, with varying assumptions, from 8% to 13% by the year 1981 and from 16% to 27% by the year 1986. Population change in origin areas under 20 miles from the site will have the greatest influence on site use. With people under 25 years of age the 'heavy' user category at the sites, change in the proportion of this age class in the origin area population will have a greater effect on site use than overall population growth.Forestry, Faculty ofGraduat