Market-oriented production management of forest products in Kenya

Self-reliance in wood products is one of the major objectives of Kenya's forest policy; stated as the management of forest resources for the adequate provision of the needs of the country in timber and other forest products to meet the community's requirements, and where possible provide for exports. The implications of such a policy are such that strategies formulated, programmes designed and practices employed in production of wood resources and wood-based products should be geared towards the anticipated needs of the intermediate consumers, which in turn are only responding to the needs of the final consumers - the society. It is argued here that such production strategies, programmes and practices cannot be formulated and pursued to satisfactorily fulfill the policy objectives, without first identifying and understanding the needs of the specific target markets. Among factors identified as necessary in understanding the target markets are market structure, size, location and dynamics of consumption pattern-determining parameters such as time, demographic and economic factors. Using production and consumption data, primarily for the period 1960-1975, quantitative and qualitative methods were used to analyze and describe the various markets of wood products, as the basis of forecasting the probable future market trends. On the basis of current management and consumption trends, forecast estimates indicate possible internal wood supply deficits during, and beyond, the period 1996-2000 AD. Current and projected market trends indicate a progressive shift from mechanical wood industries and products, mainly sawnwood, towards fibre-based reconstituted wood products - fibreboards, particleboards and paper products. This projected development would tend to favour greater attention by forest management to the potentials of not only natural forests but species diversification of man-made forests. The fibre-based industries can satisfactorily utilize small-sized logs, hence shorter rotations, and a wide range of species composition since some of the products do not exhibit individually specific wood characteristics. Plantation-species diversity, in addition to avoiding the risks of possible loss in case of an epidemic, has the advantages of comparative climatic and zonal suitability in establishment. Trends indicate that fuelwood is, and for some time will continue to be the single major component of wood consumption, rising from about 15 million M³ (rw) by 1975 to about 30 million M³ (rw) per year by 2000 AD; yet forest management seems to have no supply strategy for this product. A major identified deficiency in forestry production-utilization-marketing as a system has been insufficient coordination in wood production management decisions with different industries' development programmes and anticipated market trends, and their requirements. Probable future wood supply-demand balances were comparatively estimated on the basis of potential supplies from current and planned wood production programmes and the projected markets. From the view point of wood production management decisions, medium and long-term market forecasts can be considered more meaningful than short-term needs, since the latter will have to draw from maturing stocks, while current and planned forest establishment programmes are the basis of future medium and long-term supplies. For this reason, emphasis has been laid on the medium and long-term forecasts, up to 50 years from now, or 1 to 2 production rotations. This analysis indicates that while management has placed emphasis on plantation forestry for industrial wood supplies, the strategy, despite its merits, is biased in favour of predominantly two exotic softwood species groups, comprising of cypress and pines despite the feasibility of producing wood supplies from potentially commercial and marketable indigenous species (mainly hardwoods) and other exotic hardwoods. While natural forests constitute about 92 percent and plantations 8 percent of Kenya's forests, little management effort has been directed at commercial wood production from the former, whose annual supplies average 20 percent of total industrial wood harvested. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of indigenous woods in natural forests indicates great commercial potential of these indigenous resources. There is a need for a shift from exclusive reliance on silvicultural considerations and wood production per se as the main criteria for production management, to a set of criteria that gives sufficient consideration emphasis on utilization and marketing requirements. Greater co-ordination between foresters, industries and marketers is required in the areas of research, development decisions, information gathering and dissemination, and wood resources allocation and sales to facilitate Production Planning for the target market needs.Forestry, Faculty ofGraduat