Order Flow Analysis of Exchange Rates

Norges Bank recently started to collect new foreign exchange statistics. These statistics provide an overview of which foreign currencies various market participants buy and sell against NOK. Participants’ purchases and sales (order flow) are an important variable in exchange rate analysis using microstructure models. Order flow analysis has proved to be helpful in understanding changes in the exchange rate in the short term and the new statistics are well suited for this type of analysis. This article provides an overview of the theory behind order flow analysis and uses the data collected to date to illustrate some concepts