Ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of phytoplankton in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit. Mexico

Phytoplankton species are an important basis of the food web for various systems such as pelagic, coastal and lake. Due to their photosynthetic capacity, this community is sensitive to changes in light availability, temperature, nutrient concentrations, herbivores consumption, parasitism and competition. Therefore, they show a high spatial and temporal variability related to environmental changes both natural and anthropogenic. However, as any taxonomic group, phytoplankton species have environmental thresholds, ecological niches that define their distribution. This study was located in Aguamilpa Dam, an artificial aquatic reservoir which started operations in 1994 for electric energy production. In this system the potential distribution of the phytoplankton was evaluated, where the highest species richness and restricted distribution areas were identified. Potential distribution models based on ecological niche definition were generated using ArcMap 9.2® with Maxent (Maximun Entropy Method). The development of distribution maps was carried out using Digital Elevation Models in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha), based on nine physico-chemical and biological water parameters monitored in the reservoir. The highest species richness areas were found in the Huaynamota river tributary and at the station called La Confluencia, while the less abundance areas were found in the Santiago river tributary during warm and cold dry seasons with a great abundance of cyanophyta. During the rainfall season, the Huaynamota river tributary diversity areas were extended and the presence of some dominant species of cyanophyta were indentified. These species can be associated with trophic processes related to anthropogenic pollutants in the reservoir. This study illustrates the potential application of niche modeling approach in aquatic ecosystems