CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES

Futures Studies are one valuable tool to help businesses develop their Strategic Planning, in their ability to point out environment-induced changes in company policies, goals and actions. Companies and their leaders may discover energies and resources when they achieve a holistic, long range worldview, which helps them foresee, plan for and deal with the changes that will affect their future. The aim of this article is to examine the currentness of two exemplars of Futures Studies with distinct methods: a quantitative study analyzed by Mario Henrique Simonsen, and a qualitative futurology essay by Alvin Toffler based on the analysis of social, economic, technological and political trends and phenomena. A bibliographical research on secondary macroeconomic and sociocultural data supplied evidences for the projected trends. Based on this, the limitations of projection-based methods are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a qualitative or mixed approach when forecasts are made for the long term. It is worth reinforcing that the purpose of Futures Studies is not to predict with absolute precision how tomorrow will be like, but to produce indications so that adequate strategic decisions can be made today in an uncertain and turbulent environment.