Relation between Composite Indicators and Estimates of Quaterly GDP Changes: Case of the Czech Republic

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the basic indicator of macroeconomic performance of the Czech economy and its importance is growing. The need to get the information on its development as quickly as possible for the necessary government acts is unquestionable. Nevertheless, the time taken to publish its first quarterly estimate of growth rate is significantly longer (45 days after the reference quarter) in comparison to some other countries such as the USA and the United Kingdom. The aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between composite leading indicator (CLI), composite koincidence indicator (CCI) and the development of GDP followed by verifi cation of a predictive ability of these composite indicators. The relationships between GDP and indicators available in this 30-day period which could enter to this CLI and CCI are analysed by the advanced methods of time series analysis