Predictive Accuracy of Frailty Tools for Adverse Outcomes in a Cohort of Adults 80 Years and Older: A Decision Curve Analysis

OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive performance of 3 frailty identification tools for mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline in adults aged ≥80 years using risk reclassification statistics and decision curve analysis. DESIGN: Population-based, prospective cohort. SETTING: BELFRAIL study, Belgium. PARTICIPANTS: 560 community-dwelling adults aged ≥80 years. MEASUREMENTS: Frailty by Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) phenotype, Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) markers, and Groeningen Frailty Indicator (GFI); mortality until 5.1 ± 0.25 years from baseline and hospitalization until 3.0 ± 0.25 years; and functional status assessed by activities of daily living at baseline and after 1.7 ± 0.21 years. RESULTS: Frailty prevalence was 7.3% by CHS phenotype, 21.6% by LASA markers, and 22% by GFI. Participants determined to be frail by each tool had a significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality and first hospitalization. For functional decline, only frail by GFI had a higher adjusted odds ratio. Harrell 's C-statistic for mortality and hospitalization and area under receiver operating characteristic curve for functional decline were similar for all tools and