Social expenditure, social rights, and benefit receipt as indicators of welfare state generosity: Three peas in a pod, or a different kettle of fish altogether?

Revitalising the debate about how to operationalise and measure the extent of welfare states – the so-called dependent variable problem – recent research claims a close theoretical interaction between three different indicators: aggregated data on social expenditure, social rights and social benefit receipt. It is suggested that they all serve as an approximation of welfare state generosity as a dependent variable and help understand variation between as well as change of welfare states. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how these three indicators statistically relate to each other, using data on unemployment cash benefits. To this end, a time series cross-sectional analysis is carried out, covering 16 European countries for the period 2003–2011. Results confirm theoretical reflections on the link between the different indicators, whereby higher levels of social expenditure are positively associated with more generous social rights as well as higher levels of benefit receipt. Additionally, the study points to an ambivalent relation between benefit access and benefit levels within indicators as well as across them. This suggests competing policy choices in European welfare states, whereby more generous benefit access implies lower benefit levels and vice versa. The study contributes to the existing dependent variable literature in a twofold way. First, the conceptual link between the three different indicators and the assumptions they are associated with are critically reviewed. Second, by providing a statistical analysis of the relation between the different indicators across 16 countries, the study goes beyond theoretical elaborations about their association as well as existing small-N or medium-N case time trend studies.status: publishe