How Personal Accessibility and Frequency of Travel Affect Ownership Decisions on Mobility Resources

© 2018 by the authors. This paper presents a mobility-resource ownership model. The model captures inter-related personal mobility decisions: which transport mode (out of those available to a decision-maker) to use for a particular trip and which mobility resources (e.g., car, bicycle, transit season ticket or a combination) should the decision-maker own to enable the most "appropriate" set of transport modes. Importantly, the mobility decisions are not evaluated only for a single trip or a single day. In fact, for each decision-maker, an entire set of trips, observed over multiple days, is evaluated. We call this personal accessibility to travel. We present a two-step discrete choice model that includes both mode choice and ownership decisions. The model is estimated based on household travel survey data from Germany. This paper also investigates the simulation of travel times for non-chosen modes that are required as an input. The estimation results show significant effects of the personal accessibility and travel frequency on mobility-resource ownership decisions. To further validate the estimation, the forecasting and sensitivity analysis of the model for different scenarios is evaluated. The proposed model offers an efficient solution to situations when the impact of transport sustainability measures on mobility behaviour needs to be plausibly predicted.status: publishe