Impact of climate variability and change on hydrological extremes

Based on case studies for the river Nile basin in Africa, and catchments in Surinam, Ecuador, Bolivia and Northwest China, historical and future rainfall and river flow trends are analysed including multi-decadal climate oscillations. Impact results show that climate change may lead to severe increases in the frequency and magnitude of peak rainfall intensities and river discharges, and reduced water availability for agricultural, domestic and industrial purposes, including hydropower production. At the same time, due to the difficulties and uncertainties in climate change impact modelling and analysis, caution must be exercised when interpreting climate change scenarios. These uncertainties can, however, not be used as an argument for not taking determined actions. Instead, uncertainties should be accounted for and flexible and sustainable solutions aimed at.FRIEND/Nile project of UNESCO & Flanders FUST VLIR projects: UOS Anton de Kom Universiteit Suriname UOS Moi University Kenya UOS Cuenca University Ecuador EI UMSA La Paz Sino-Belgian research project ARCHIMOD, Belgian Science Policy Office (Belspo)status: publishe