The Prevalence and Context Effects of Religious Voting in the Flemish Region (Belgium). A Multi-Level Analysis

In this paper we investigate the impact of religious involvement on voting preference and voting behavior for the Christian Democratic party in Belgium. Although it is widely recognized that religious involvement is declining in Western European democracies, there is still significant evidence for the influence of religion on voting behavior. We use survey data of 2006 to test the relationship between religious involvement and voting preferences at the individual level. The results show that religious belonging is, and remains, the most important predictor for voting for the Christian Democratic party, followed by religious behavior. At the municipal level, we can confirm this relationship, using data of the Roman Catholic church, the National Institute of Statistics and the local election results of 2006. We observe a significant positive relationship between religious participation and the vote share for the Christian Democratic party at the level of the municipality. We therefore can conclude that religion still plays a role in determining voting behavior, with religious effect occurring simultaneously on the individual and the community level, although it is clear the effect is much stronger on the individual level.status: publishe