Explaining the Green Vote: an Analysis of the Green Vote in Belgian Local Elections 1994-2006

In the ongoing debate about the electoral appeal of Green parties, some authors argue that Green voting is a typical phenomenon of the 'new middle class' (young, highly educated, urban), while others assume that Green parties are able to reach out to new constituencies. In this article, we contribute to this discussion by introducing new aggregate level data on the electoral performance of Belgian Green parties in the period 1994-2006. These data were analysed using a Tobit II model, indicating that entry Into the elections is strongly determined by district magnitude. We did not find. any indications for a mainstreaming of the electoral appeal. The data show a strong positive incumbency effect on the local level, as Green parties tend to be rewarded for their participation in a local governing majority. This finding stands in contrasts with the negative incumbency effects that were demonstrated at the national level.status: publishe