Application of probabilistic concepts in evaluation and strengthening of constructions

When assessing the remaining load bearing capacity of existing structures, it is of outmost importance to have an optimal estimate of the remaining strength of the structural materials used. In this paper, the added value of a statistical analysis of in site data is demonstrated based on 2 case studies: the ‘s Hertogenmolens Watermill (B) and the Vuurmolen (1902) at Overijse (B), a former steam mill. Both buildings are listed as historical monument. The first structure mainly consists of brick masonry, the latter building is one of the first reinforced concrete buildings erected in Belgium (1902). In both cases, the load bearing capacity and thus the remaining structural safety was one of the main issues in the global restoration of the monuments. To obtain a good estimate of the strength of the structure, in site data are gathered. In both cases this is done with a mix of destructive and non-destructive tests. These data are processed statistically. From that, an estimated probability density function for the materials’ resistance is obtained. The effects of this estimate on the structural evaluation and necessity of a strengthening are outlined. The effects of oversimplification in the statistical processing and mismatching the type of probability density function on the structural safety are illustrated as well.status: publishe