DETERMINATION OF MONTHLY WIND SPEED OF KAYSERI REGION WITH GRAY ESTIMATION METHOD

Wind has been used to facilitate human lifethroughout history, but besides being a beneficial renewableenergy resource it could transform into a hazardous disasterwhich could result high loss of life and property. The windenergy was first used for purposes such as produce cereals,transport sailing ships in the sea. Nowadays, wind energy isused in electricity production. The temporal spatial variabilityand difficulties faced during measurement process of windspeed increased the importance of studies related with windspeed forecast. In this study, Gray estimation method wasapplied to monthly wind speed data measured between2000−2017 years at three weather stations in Kayseri. Threedifferent GM(1,1) equations were obtained from results ofanalysis. The average of coefficients obtained from GM(1,1)equations were used to forecast monthly wind speed databetween 2014-2017 of other six weather stations located inKayseri. Accuracy of wind speed estimates were investigatedwith statistics mean absolute error (MAE) and root meansquared error (RMSE).According to MAE and RMSE criteria,GM(1,1) model has the best result in 18207 station(MAE: 0.28; RMSE: 0.32), while the worst result in 18457station (MAE: 1.93; RMSE: 1.99). Results of the studyindicated that the forecast of wind speed for locations withoutmeasurement could be accurately predicted with GM(1,1)model obtained from the other near stations.