The Forecast of the Future Production Amounts of the Some Fish Species Being Cultivated in Turkey

WOS: 000285427600003In this study, current output of some fish species which are commonly cultivated in Turkey, such as Seabream (Sparus aurata), Seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Carp (Cyprinus carpio) is estimated for the future until 2008-2030. The year 2030 is taken as base since it provides parallelelism with The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the results of European Union. Current output of seabream, seabass, salmon, carp of the Turkish Statistical Institute of 1986-2007 and additionally, total aquaculture cultivation extents of Turkey were used for this purpose. Using the Genstat for Teaching Package Program on these data, autoregressive modeling was made with the Method of Time Series Analysis. Box-Cox transformation was applied for the data which do not comply with the normal distribution. Autocorrelation coefficients were calculated, the statistical significance of these coefficients were controlled at the level of 5% and tested whether they were stable or not. As a consequence, the probable estimation values determined for the species of Seabream, Seabass, Salmon and Carp are respectively, 70015, 88050, 126272 and 1391 ton for 2030. The total probable cultivation estimation value of Turkey was found as 284337 ton/year