The nexus of linkage and leverage in Russia's policy toward the Near Abroad: the case of Moldova

The evolution of the EU s Eastern Partnership initiative and especially the adoption of the Association Agreements by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have evoked Russia s increasing concern regarding the incremental EU-ization of the post-Soviet regional order. Moscow has adjusted its own policy toward the respective states accordingly. In the context of the 2014 Crimean issue, a number of empirically-oriented research which explore Russian foreign policy instruments towards its Near Abroad countries has grown. Even the concepts of soft power and smart power are often used by experts to portray the recent transformations in Russia s foreign policy. However, the employment of such concepts risks neglecting the fundamental and complex asymmetric interdependence between Russia and the post-Soviet republics. This study puts forward an alternative theoretical framework underpinned by the concepts of leverage and linkage , as developed by Levitsky & Way, that allows the accounting for this interdependence in a systematic manner. The thesis develops the linkage-leverage nexus approach, which enables a comprehensive analysis of Russian foreign policy instruments toward post-Soviet states in a regional environment determined by security threats, stateness issues, turbulence in domestic politics, energy, and trade-related problems. The respective analytical approach is subsequently applied to the case study of Russian-Moldovan relations. In order to demonstrate the validity of this approach the author employs a method of process-tracing that examines vast empirical data, including various documents, numerous official statements, expert opinions and media accounts, and eventually unfolds the causal mechanism of linkage-leverage nexus. The result of analysis supports the main argument of the thesis asserting that the increasing instrumentalization of the existing linkage between Russia and the countries in its Near Abroad may lead to undermining sovereignty and territorial integrity of individual states, such as Moldova. The presented conceptualization of external influence on domestic decision-making process with regard to foreign policy agenda brings closer structuralist and agent-centred International Relations approaches