Add to ORKGOccupational career patterns are conceptualized as sequences that consist of individuals’ occupational states and employer changes. These sequences are often similar, as many careers are path dependent and follow general patterns. Our hypothesis is that employee turnover can be predicted by employer changes of individuals with similar career trajectories. We derived 1,651 career sequences that incorporate 20 years of individuals’ occupational positions from a large national panel. The similarity of career sequences was assessed with the optimal matching method. We then used the resulting similarity measures as weights for a novel predictor of individuals’ employer changes. In support of our hypothesis, employer changes in similar career seq...