Energy demand, carbon emissions and acid rain : consequences of a changing Western Europe

Employing a multisector energy demand model of thirteen Western European countries (SEEM) together with the RAINS model developed by IIASA, we in this report address the question of how much the European economic and political integration process matter for future development in energy demand, emissions to air of key pollutants and transboundary transport of sulphur and nitrogen. We do this by comparing two simulation scenarios; one scenario based on the assumption of further European integration versus another scenario where fragmentation is assumed to prevail. Both scenarios cover the period from 1991 to 2020. The focus of the report is on consequences for future demand for fossil fuels, emissions of CO2, SO2 and NO., and transport and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. Average annual growth in GDP in the integration scenario is 2.3 per cent, while demand for energy, emissions of CO2, SO2 and NO., and nitrogen deposition all show average annual growth rates from 1.7 to 1.9 per cent. Deposition of sulphur grows at the slightly lower rate of 1.4 per cent per year in this scenario. In the fragmentation scenario all growth rates are reduced by 0.5-0.7 percentage points, except the rate of annual average growth in SO2 emissions which is reduced by 0.8 percentage point. The results vary considerably, however, over countries, sectors and fuel types.This paper is an outcome of the project "Energy scenarios for a changing Europe" carried out at Statistics Norway in cooperation with ECN, The Netherlands. Financial support from Statoil, The Dutch Ministry of Planning and The Norwegian Ministry of Environment is acknowledged