A statistical analysis of the swedish import of smoked salmon from Norway

The analysis adresses the question of whether Sweden's membership in the EU has had any influence on the import of smoked salmon from Norway. After Sweden became a member of EU in 1995, the trade conditions changed from free trade to a regime where import of smoked salmon from Norway is imputed a 13 % ad valorem duty. Statistical models are applied in testing whether there exists an "EU-effect". The analysis indicates that we cannot reject the possibility of an "EU-effect". The inflicted long-run loss on the Norwegian industry amounts to about 16 million Norwegian kroner per year, which corresponds to about 8 % of the average yearly export value before 1995