A Modeling Framework for Efficacy Assessment and Preventive Maintenance of Torrential Protection Works

International audienceNatural phenomena in mountains put people and assets at risk. Risk reduction measures can be either structural (protection works) or non-structural (risk zoning maps). In torrential watersheds of the French mountains, many checkdams have been built since the 19th century. As any civil engineering structure, those dams age and their failures may have severe effects on protected areas. Thus, preserving their level of efficacy is of a high interest. In a context of decreasing public budgets, it is necessary to assess their structural, functional and economic efficacy in order to quantify the residual risk and to choose the best maintenance strategies. Recently, a global approach has been proposed to integrate safety and reliability analysis, multicriteria decision-making methods, and information imperfection processing. However, it does not help in choosing the best strategy to maintain protection devices mainly because it does not cover all aspects related to protection works management making the balance between investment, preventive maintenance costs, and risk evolution. This paper develops a contribution addressing all those issues and proposes a new modeling approach based on Petri nets, whose main steps are: 1) to describe multi-scale protection works systems interaction between both natural and technological systems’ components; 2) to analyze structural and functional failure modes; 3) to develop a Petri net model for deterioration and maintenance modeling; 4) to compare different maintenance strategies under different hypothesis on degradation and damage processes