Low fertility In Serbia: new insights

Objective: The key objective of this paper is to analyze Serbia's 2011 Population Census results related to the fertility, in the interest of more efficient population policy model. Results: None of the analyzed 33 age cohorts of women who were past the reproductive age in 2011 had an average number of live births bigger than two children. Even the registered women in the oldest analyzed age cohort (generation born in 1930) had given birth to 1.88 children on average. This is clearly the largest registered average number of live births. The age cohorts that were past the reproductive age in 2011 had, on average, between 1.85 children (generation born in 1931) and 1.75 children (generations born in 1937, 1938, 1939, 1940 and 1941), while the most frequently recorded average number of live births was about 1.8. The youngest age cohort of women who were past the reproductive age in 2011 (the generation born in 1962) had 1.82 children on average. The average number of live births by women who were approaching the end of their reproductive age at the time of the 2011 Census showed a continuous decrease from 1.81 (the generation of 1963) to 1.55 (the generation of 1975). The registered difference of 0.26 children per woman is substantial. Although younger cohorts still have a chance of participating in reproduction, the identified markedly lower average number of live births by women aged between 36 and 40 compared to women aged 41 and over seems to imply that the completed fertility in Serbia can be a forecast to diverge from the stabilized low value and decline below the 1.8 mark. This is especially in view of the fact that a large number of women in the 20–24 age bracket (82%), more than a half (55%) of women aged 25–29 and about a third (31%) of those aged 30–34 were childless at the time of the 2011 Population Census. Conclusion: The results of the 2011 Population Census suggest that the childbearing crisis in Serbia will not only continue, but will probably deepen, as well. The findings on the non- participation of younger age cohorts of women in reproduction indicate to decision-makers that it is vital to make efforts to mitigate the socio-economic barriers to bearing and raising one’s first child during the optimum period