Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates economic, political, and institutional constraints to fiscal policy implementation in sub-saharan Africa. We find that planned fiscal adjustments or expansions are less likely to be implemented the larger they are, the more inaccurate the growth forecasts they are based on, the more fragile the regulatory system in the country, and the weaker the institutions framing the design, approval, and execution of the budget. The findings support ongoing efforts in the region to improve the quality and timeliness of economic data; enhance forecasting capacity; adopt realistic fiscal plans; and strengthen governance, budgetary institutions, and public financial management procedures.Budgets;Economic models;Government expenditures;Revenues;fiscal policy, statistic, budget balance, computation, correlation, estimation method, autocorrelation, fiscal implementation, fiscal outcomes, fiscal plans, budgetary institutions, forecasting, graphical analysis, outlier, fiscal expansions, empirical model, fiscal balance, stata, fiscal adjustments, fiscal risks, fiscal performance, standard deviation, revenue collection, fiscal policies, fiscal institutions, computations, statistics, fiscal variables, fiscal targets, fiscal decision, fiscal authorities, standard errors, descriptive statistics, fiscal discipline, public spending, fiscal projections, scatter plot, outliers, fiscal consolidations, fiscal outturns, fiscal balances, fiscal affairs department, econometrics, tax bases, fiscal reaction, fiscal planning, fiscal changes, statistical data, fiscal budget, surveys, sample mean, fiscal forecasts, fiscal target, fiscal policy decisions, horizontal axis, fiscal years, fiscal revenues, instrumental variables, fiscal restriction, medium-term fiscal frameworks, fiscal gaps, fiscal rules, fiscal consolidation, predictability, fiscal affairs, fiscal side, tax revenues, measurement error, equation, budget constraints, fiscal behavior, public debt, predictions, fiscal frameworks, survey, measurement errors, tax collections, fiscal data, fiscal expenditures, budget management, samples, capital expenditures, cyclical fiscal policy, fiscal revenue, fiscal forecasting, instrumental variable, fiscal adjustment, budget process, fiscal policy outcomes, fiscal reaction functions, fiscal governance