Forecast of Occupational and Sectoral Employment Development in Upper Austria

Structural transformation and changes in the production system result in changes of the occupational profiles and qualifications demanded by the labour market. However, adjusting to the new requirements of the labour market takes time. Against this background, medium- to long-term forecasts of the demand for labour may contribute to an early identification of future qualification requirements and, thus, support both individual and political planning processes. This paper presents a forecasting instrument developed for Upper Austria with a view to 2008 as a forecasting horizon. The results of the forecast show that in Upper Austria, a highly industrialised region, employment in the service sector continues to expand (accounting for about 65 percent of total dependent employment in 2008, compared with 61 percent in 2000), whereas agriculture, mining and goods production are declining in importance. Nevertheless, a strong focus on goods production, above all in the mechanical and vehicle engineering sectors, will remain characteristic of the Upper Austrian economy on a medium-term basis. In the service sector, dynamic growth is to be expected in the field of business services (employment +6.1 percent per year), the health sector (+2.4 percent per year), and EDP services (+8.3 percent per year). The results of the forecast of the occupational situation in Upper Austria point to employment gains in customer-oriented and highly qualified activities. By 2008, some 5,800 additional jobs will be created in occupations requiring an academic degree. Creation of 15,200 new jobs has been forecast in activities requiring higher-level secondary education, with or without continuing non-university training. At the same time, unskilled activities in the crafts sector will be replaced by activities requiring a higher level of education. In the service sector, demand for unskilled workers with on-the-job training is increasing slightly in accordance with the general sectoral development, although demand for higher qualifications is increasing also in this sector.Beschäftigtennachfrage; Sektorstruktur; Berufsstruktur; Oberösterreich; Modellprognose; Berufliche und sektorale Beschäftigungsprognose für Oberösterreich. Methoden und Ergebnisse des regionalen Berufs- und Sektormodells für Oberösterreich; Forecast of Oc